Chicago Midway Air Traffic Forecasts

The Challenge

The YVRAS consortium required detailed air traffic forecasts to guide their privatization bid for Chicago Midway Airport.

Our Role

InterVISTAS prepared a package of traffic forecasts for the bid team including:
Very long term forecasts (constrained by runway length) were developed with expert projections on key aircraft technology developments.

Short term forecasts for years 1-5 were developed reflecting the current business cycle and the survival/restructuring of airlines (the work was done at the middle of the financial crisis).

The forecasts also included risk analysis which fed into the financial analysis, stress scenarios (e.g., Southwest de-hubbing) and peak hour forecasts to determine capacity requirements.

Results

YVRAS was the successful bidder for Midway. The client indicates that our forecasts were considered credible by the financial community and the City of Chicago. Bid ultimately collapsed due in large part the financial uncertainty in 2008.