Reliable forecasts of traffic demand are critical input to strategic and master planning, budgeting and revenue projection, operations planning, facility development and capital investment. The InterVISTAS forecasting practice has assisted airports, airlines, governments and financial institutions throughout the world in assessing the traffic and economic outlook and in generating cost effective solutions.
While InterVISTAS incorporates advanced econometric and statistical technologies in its assignments, the task of developing forecasts is not approached simply as a “numbers” exercise, but reflects in-depth thought and insight about the future. Every forecasting assignment includes both a formal analysis of structured models, and consultations and research to develop a deep understanding of the local market conditions.
Our forecasters specialize in situations involving fundamental change, such as the introduction of low cost carrier service or the development of a new airport. In these cases, the past is a poor indicator of the future, and scenario-based approaches are used, taking account of airline competitive practices, local economic development, tourism, future equipment trends, energy prices and economic growth.
We recognise that with any projection of future activity, air traffic forecasts are subject to a degree of risk and uncertainty. The forecasts are based on underlying assumptions regarding economic growth, traffic development, fuel prices, aviation technology, etc. which are developed from the best available intelligence and analysis. However, it is not possible to determine how these factors might vary over time and when certain events may occur (e.g., the timing of recessions, fuel price changes, air carrier entry and exit, etc.). To address this, InterVISTAS uses quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate the risk profile of the traffic forecasts.
InterVISTAS can provide a wide range of forecast outputs to meet all aspects of the clients’ requirements including:
- Annual passenger forecasts broken down into key markets (domestic/international, geographic markets, etc.).
- Annual cargo forecasts by key markets.
- Commercial and General Aviation aircraft movement and aircraft weight forecasts.
- Short-term forecasts of quarterly or even monthly traffic.
- Peak period forecasts and nominal/synthetic schedules.
- Constrained and unconstrained forecasts (e.g., due to runway or terminal capacity).
- Forecast noise profiles and environmental emissions.
- Quantitative risk analysis to determine the risk profile of the forecasts.
- Stress scenarios to examine the impact of recession, airline failure, terrorism, etc.
- Demand response to price changes (airfare, fuel prices, airport fees and charges, etc.).
- Critical review of existing forecasts.