YUL Long-Term Air Traffic Forecasts

Location

Montréal, QC

Service Area

Economics & Finance

View from the ground of an airplane taking off in the sky.

Project Brief

InterVISTAS was tasked with developing annually updated long-term air traffic forecasts for four airports in Canada, including Montréal–Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport (YUL), to provide continuity to Canadian Airports Council members following the discontinuation of Transport Canada’s forecasting program.

Approach

The development of risk-based air traffic forecasts involved an in-depth econometric analysis of the historical origin-destination travel demand at the airport. InterVISTAS leveraged its significant experience and knowledge in analyzing aviation industry data to develop refined estimates of O/D passenger travel demand to produce high-quality market assessments and air traffic forecasts. The project team developed risk-based forecasts of O/D, connecting, and E/D passenger traffic along with aircraft movements and air cargo both at an airport level and at the national level. Throughout the years of the forecasting program, InterVISTAS has successfully refined its aviation data analysis and forecasting methodology to deliver high-quality forecasts for its client. The most recent engagement included a very-long term traffic projection to provide an outlook of traffic potential at the end of the airport’s ground lease with Transport Canada.

Results

Since 2016, InterVISTAS has been engaged directly by YUL to provide customized, updated analysis that reconciles with prior year’s work while continuing to implement InterVISTAS’ latest methodology advancements.