Route Forecasting & Airline Business Cases

Developing a credible business case for new flights is critical in generating additional air services.   InterVISTAS presentation packages include not only background information and statistics, but strategic route analyses conducted from an airline planner’s perspective.  We provide the level of detail and type of information required by airline route planners to make decisions regarding new air services.

Route Forecasts

The core of the business case is the detailed route analysis required for airline planners to commit to a new air service.  InterVISTAS undertakes this analysis using high-speed traffic and revenue allocation models to forecast the market share, traffic composition, connectivity, and load factor of a potential new air service.  This includes the use of sophisticated Quality of Service Index (QSI) route planning applications used by major air carriers.

InterVISTAS models provide thorough analysis of complex air travel options, including hypothetical new routes, schedule changes, interlining and code-share partnerships, fleet changes, and other scenarios.  This allows effective analysis of multiple what-if scenarios, quickly responding to changes in flight times, frequency, aircraft type, and even hypothetical competitor reactions.

To provide a quantitative foundation for air service business cases, InterVISTAS can:

  • Develop realistic flight schedules that are designed to maximize connectivity, appropriately serve the local market, and fit the target airline’s hub strategy.
  • Determine the most appropriate aircraft type and viable flight frequency for the route.
  • Provide conservative and realistic assessments of traffic stimulation potential for each new air service.
  • Provide detailed traffic flow forecast results, including:
    • Online and codeshare single- and double-connecting markets for the new flights and the expected market share that new flights will capture in each non-stop and connecting city pair.
    • Forecast load factor for new flights.
    • Proportion of local vs. connecting passengers on the flights.
    • Forecast flight revenue (both sector-prorated and network contribution).
  • Assess the impact of new service on other airlines (traffic steal) and on the target airline’s existing services (traffic cannibalization).

InterVISTAS takes a measured and conservative approach to route analysis to ensure results are viewed as credible by the airlines.  We have the industry knowledge and experience required to properly interpret and, if necessary, adjust results to ensure maximum accuracy in today’s dynamic planning environment.

Business Case Presentation Packages

InterVISTAS prepares presentation packages designed to build a persuasive business case new air services and to motivate airline network planners to undertake a serious assessment of these market opportunities.  InterVISTAS’ detailed and compelling presentation components include:

  • Economic, demographic, and tourism information for the airport’s catchment area (including surrounding regions).
  • Airport facility information, including airport fees.
  • Market sizes, traffic trends, traffic leakage, and air services benchmarking.
  • Suggested new air services, fleet type, and specific flight schedules.
  • Traffic stimulation modeling.
  • Competitive analysis.
  • Detailed route analysis, including market share and load-factor forecasts, as described above.
  • Flight revenue forecasts.
  • Strategic considerations.
  • Next steps and contact information.

InterVISTAS tailors presentation packages to reflect the unique business models and network development strategies of each carrier.

Airline Meeting Support

Clients often request that InterVISTAS participate in airline meetings. In such cases, we typically lead the discussion on the route analysis component of the business case, ensuring the results are fully understood and properly interpreted, as well as answering related questions. In our experience, this helps ensure the acceptance of route analysis assumptions and credibility of the methodology and results. InterVISTAS can arrange and participate in airline headquarters meetings, and meetings at industry route development conferences.