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Vancouver International Airport Forecasts


Vancouver, BC

Service Area

Economics & Finance

Aerial view of Vancouver International Airport

Project Brief

InterVISTAS was selected to develop long-term, risk-based airport activity forecasts for the Vancouver Airport Authority’s 2017-2037 Master Plan. 


InterVISTAS developed a highly detailed risk-based air passenger forecast for YVR which incorporated more than 40 risk factors derived directly from the airport authority’s risk register. A truly risk-based aircraft movement methodology was developed for YVR, linking the thousands of individual risk-based passenger forecast simulations to individual aircraft movement forecasts, creating direct linkage between the risk-based passenger and movement forecasts.

InterVISTAS developed an innovative and ground-breaking air cargo forecasting methodology for YVR. This methodology uses customs data to estimate the total air cargo market of an airport, including cargo flying on and off the runways as well as cargo diverted to/from competitor airports. The size of the total cargo market enabled us to estimate and forecast YVR’s air cargo penetration rate. YVR’s E/D air cargo was then forecast as a function of the forecast size of the total regional air cargo market. A final component to the air cargo forecast was an estimate of total cargo processed on airport lands, estimated using truck counts.


InterVISTAS initial forecasts have been adopted as the Master Plan forecast of record and we have been subsequently commissioned for two annual updates to the forecasts.

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